Financial markets have spent the first six months of the year climbing up a wall of worry, leaving most of us better off than we were on New Year’s Eve, but not everyone. Let’s spend a few minutes pondering one of the bricks in that wall.
Unemployment rates among recent college graduates (college graduates aged 22-27) compared to the broader population are now at their largest gap in the last 35 years, according to a recent New York Fed analysis… This is not good.
Unemployment for this group started the quarter at 5.8% and that was before tariff uncertainty and new college graduates entered the workforce marketplace this spring. Unfortunately, things for many young graduates are about to get worse.
According to TransUnion, the credit reporting company, nearly two million student loan borrowers are at risk of having their wages garnished this summer. Wage garnishments are expected to start as early as July. For many, notices have already gone out.
College debt is a much bigger issue than most of us want to understand. There are currently 43 million borrowers, and they owe more than $1.6 trillion in student loan debt. While those without jobs will eventually find employment, possibly even worthwhile employment, what they won’t be able to do is avoid paying their debts. That issue has been decided at the polling box.
Now I’m all for people who borrow money paying it back. Further, many of the largest loans are owned by those most apt to pay it back (think newly minted doctors, lawyers and college graduates who opt for careers in the trades). But the U.S. economy has a long history of depending on recent college grads to find employment, marry and raise a family, all of which leads to economic activity that benefits all of us. Further, history shows that individuals that do things in this order (college, marriage then children), have shown themselves to be the most likely individuals and families to avoid falling into poverty.
I’m worried about the new graduates, and a little perturbed by those who counseled the borrowing of so much money. Frugality, employment and marriage amongst our youngest economic participants rewards not just the young, but all in our now 249-year economic experiment known as the United States of America. So, while markets have performed well over the last six months, my attention will remain drawn to how our recent college graduates are integrating into the larger economy. After all, our tax system and especially Social Security depends upon their success.